RATIONAL

KSA’s Intermediate Chemicals industry has grown based on the development of Basic Chemicals in the country over the last 50 years. The Kingdom has successful track record in the Basics cluster, while the Intermediates Chemicals sector have big potential for growth specially in C3,C4 and aromatics. This will be achieved through the adoption of liquid cracking technologies. Local players have already grown portfolios of intermediates, despite the number of “molecular gaps” needed to support downstream specialties and conversion. These profiles represent a good platform and show the ability of the industry in the Kingdom to set ambitious targets in this cluster.

Value Proposition

• Growing capabilities in existing molecules and expanding the Intermediate Chemicals portfolio to achieve regional and global footprint in new molecules.

• The industry will capitalize on local and regional demand for downstream specialties and conversion clusters that need a supply of integrated Intermediates capacities to grow competitively.

• The global Chemicals market is expected to grow at a 3.7% CAGR, doubling production volumes from 1,870 mn ton/year in 2020 to 3,867 mn ton/year by 2040.

• The Chemicals sector is also expected to be a driver of demand for oil & gas, gaining share from all other segments, from ~13% in 2020 to ~31% in 2040.

• KSA is estimated to account for 2.4% of global market share in Intermediate Chemicals. KSA is a global leader in methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) and styrene with 10% and 6% of the global capacities.

• The global chemicals market is expected to grow at 3.7% CAGR, doubling production volumes from 1,870 Mn Ton/year to 3,867 Mn Ton/year by 2040.

• Chemical sector is also expected to be a driver of demand for oil & gas, gaining share from all other segments, from ~13% in 2020 to ~31% in 2040.

• As oil demand continues to grow but is expected to peak by 2040, chemicals is becoming a most relevant area of focus for O&G countries and companies.

• The global chemicals market is expected to grow at 3.7% CAGR, doubling production volumes from 1,870 Mn Ton/year to 3,867 Mn Ton/year by 2040.

• Chemical sector is also expected to be a driver of demand for oil & gas, gaining share from all other segments, from ~13% in 2020 to ~31% in 2040.

• As oil demand continues to grow but is expected to peak by 2040, chemicals is becoming a most relevant area of focus for O&G countries and companies.

The Kingdom is home to the Ghawar field, the world’s biggest conventional onshore oil field in terms of reserves and daily output. The oil field has been producing since 1951, and it is estimated to continue pumping oil at its current highest production capacity of 3.8 million barrels a day beyond 2050. Therefore, the country is likely to have a high demand for drilling rigs in the onshore oil and gas operations.

In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil reserves experienced a slight increase of 0.04%, reaching a total of 37,065 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) or 267,192 million barrels. However, during the same year, both crude oil production and exports declined. Production dropped by 1.23%, amounting to 462.01 million TOE or 3,331 million barrels, while exports fell by 6.11%, totaling 315.31 million TOE or 2,273 million barrels. This decline was attributed to the economic downturn caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic.

To stabilize crude oil prices, reduce record-high oil inventory levels, and restore global market balance, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with other OPEC+ members, implemented voluntary production cuts starting in October 2022.

Approximately 88% of all imported aluminum oxide came from Australia and the remaining 12% came from various countries like the USA, UAE, China and France.

The imported quantities in the years (2018-2023) maintained an average of 24,800 tons and during the period (2016-2023) a negative CAGR of 17% was recorded as there are other readily substitute such as activated carbon and other zeolites with comparable performance. Nevertheless, the imported quantities and values in excess of SAR 500 million justifies the localization of these products in the absence of a local producer.

Approximately 88% of all imported aluminum oxide came from Australia and the remaining 12% came from various countries like the USA, UAE, China and France.

The imported quantities in the years (2018-2023) maintained an average of 24,800 tons and during the period (2016-2023) a negative CAGR of 17% was recorded as there are other readily substitute such as activated carbon and other zeolites with comparable performance. Nevertheless, the imported quantities and values in excess of SAR 500 million justifies the localization of these products in the absence of a local producer.

The polyurethane market size in the Middle East and Africa is estimated at US$2.55 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach US$3.28 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 5.10% during the forecast period (2024- 2029).

• Growth is driven by Asia, with China alone owning almost half of the market size of global chemical sales by 2030.

• Market growth in value is higher than global production expansion (in value estimated at CAGR of 5.4%) given that portfolio is steering towards more innovative and higher value-added products.

KSA’s global share in chemicals volume is 4.7%, with a portfolio concentrated in basics and commodity derivatives produced with the gas crackers output.

• In intermediate chemicals, KSA is estimated to capture 2.4% of the global market share, and 10% and 6% of global capacities in MTBE and Styrene, respectively.

• KSA is a global leader in MTBE and Styrene with 10% and 6% of the global capacities respectively.

• Methanol derivatives, in particular Formaldehyde chains, represent a growth opportunity for KSA’s chemicals sector, driven by strong local demand rising at 3.4% CAGR.

Global consumption of chemicals is evenly distributed across all global sectors, with varying market progress.